Research Topic task started on Tue Apr 29, 2003 at 8:32 AM

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Precaution, uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions.
Ricci Paolo F; Rice Dave; Ziagos John; Cox Louis A University of San Francisco, 2130 Fulton St., 94117, San Francisco, CA, USA
ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL (2003 Apr), 29(1), 1-19. In-process for MEDLINE (Copyright 2003 U.S. National Library of Medicine)
Abstract
What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.

Carcinogenicity of methyl-tertiary butyl ether in gasoline.
Mehlman Myron A Department of Environmental Medicine, The Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, New York 10029, USA. mehlman@rcn.com
ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (2002 Dec), 982 149-59. MEDLINE (Copyright 2003 U.S. National Library of Medicine)
Abstract
Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) was added to gasoline on a nationwide scale in 1992 without prior testing of adverse, toxic, or carcinogenic effects. Since that time, numerous reports have appeared describing adverse health effects of individuals exposed to MTBE, both from inhalation of fumes in the workplace and while pumping gasoline. Leakage of MTBE, a highly water-soluble compound, from underground storage tanks has led to contamination of the water supply in many areas of the United States. Legislation has been passed by many states to prohibit the addition of MTBE to gasoline. The addition of MTBE to gasoline has not accomplished its stated goal of decreasing air pollution, and it has posed serious health risks to a large portion of the population, particularly the elderly and those with respiratory problems, asthma, and skin sensitivity. Reports of animal studies of carcinogenicity of MTBE began to appear in the 1990s, prior to the widespread introduction of MTBE into gasoline. These reports were largely ignored. In ensuing years, further studies have shown that MTBE causes various types of malignant tumors in mice and rats. The National Toxicology Program (NTP) Board of Scientific Counselors' Report on Carcinogens Subcommittee met in December 1998 to consider listing MTBE as "reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen." In spite of recommendations from Dr. Bailer, the primary reviewer, and other scientists on the committee, the motion to list MTBE in the report was defeated by a six to five vote, with one abstention. On the basis of animal studies, it is widely accepted that if a chemical is carcinogenic in appropriate laboratory animal test systems, it must be treated as though it were carcinogenic in humans. In the face of compelling evidence, NTP Committee members who voted not to list MTBE as "reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen" did a disservice to the general public; this action may cause needless exposure of many to health risks and possibly cancers.

Use of compound-specific stable carbon isotope analyses to demonstrate anaerobic biodegradation of MTBE in groundwater at a gasoline release site.
Kolhatkar Ravi; Kuder Tomasz; Philp Paul; Allen Jon; Wilson John T Group Environmental Management Company, 150 West Warrenville Road, Naperville, Illinois 60563, USA. kolhatrv@bp.com
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (2002 Dec 1), 36(23), 5139-46. MEDLINE (Copyright 2003 U.S. National Library of Medicine)
Abstract
Currently it is unclear if natural attenuation is an appropriate remedial approach for groundwater impacted by methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE). Site-characterization data at most gasoline release sites are adequate to evaluate attenuation in MTBE concentrations over time or distance. But, demonstrating natural biodegradation of MTBE requires laboratory microcosm studies, which could be expensive and time-consuming. Recently, compound-specific carbon isotope ratio analyses (13C/12C expressed in delta13C notation) have been used to demonstrate aerobic biodegradation of MTBE in laboratory incubations. This study explored the potential of this approach to distinguish MTBE biodegradation from other abiotic processes in an anaerobic groundwater plume that showed extensive decrease in MTBE concentrations. To our knowledge, this is the first study to use delta13C of MTBE data in groundwater and laboratory microcosms to demonstrate anaerobic biodegradation of MTBE. The delta13C of MTBE in monitoring wells increased by up to 31 per thousand (-25.5 per thousand to +5.5 per thousand) along with a 40-fold decrease in MTBE concentrations. Anaerobic incubations in laboratory microcosms indicated up to 20-fold reduction in MTBE concentrations with a corresponding increase in delta13C of MTBE of up to 33.4 per thousand (-28.7 per thousand to +4.7 per thousand) in live microcosms. Little enrichment was observed in autoclaved controls. These results demonstrate that anaerobic biodegradation was the dominant natural attenuation mechanism for MTBE at this site. The estimated isotopic enrichment factors (epsilon(field) = -8.10 per thousand and epsilon(lab) = -9.16 per thousand) were considerably larger than the range (-1.4 per thousand to -2.4 per thousand) previously reported for aerobic biodegradation of MTBE in laboratory incubations. These observations strongly suggest that delta13C of MTBE could be potentially useful as an "indicator" of in-situ MTBE biodegradation.

Comparative risk analysis of six volatile organic compounds in California drinking water.
Williams Pamela; Benton Laurie; Warmerdam John; Sheehans Patrick Exponent, 4940 Pearl East Circle, Suite 300, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA. pwilliams@exponent.com
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (2002 Nov 15), 36(22), 4721-8. MEDLINE (Copyright 2003 U.S. National Library of Medicine)
Abstract
The widespread use and storage of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the United States has led to releases of these chemicals into the environment, including groundwater sources of drinking water. Many of these VOCs are commonly found in public drinking water supplies across the nation and are considered by state or federal agencies to be potentially carcinogenic to humans. In this paper, we evaluate the detection frequencies, detected concentrations, and relative cancer risks of six VOCs in drinking water sources in California from 1995 to 2001. We find that during this 7-year period, the most frequently detected VOCs in sampled drinking water sources were chloroform (12-14%), PCE (11-13%), and TCE (10-12%). Detection frequencies in water were lower for 1,1-DCE (3-6%), MTBE (1-3%), and benzene (<1%). Mean detected concentrations were also consistently above California's primary maximum contaminant level for some VOCs, including benzene, PCE, and TCE. Although none of the six VOCs necessarily poses a significant public health threat from drinking water exposures, 1,1-DCE and benzene werefound to pose the greatest cancer risk relative to the other VOCs. However, after adjusting for the occurrence of each VOC in drinking water, chloroform and PCE were found to pose the greatest relative cancer risk. Despite media reports about significant MTBE contamination of drinking watersupplies in California, MTBE detections were infrequent and this chemical was found to pose the least cancer risk relative to the other VOCs.

Can we protect everybody from drinking water contaminants?.
Howd Robert A Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland, California 94612, USA. bhowd@oehha.ca.gov
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOXICOLOGY (2002 Sep-Oct), 21(5), 389-95. MEDLINE (Copyright 2003 U.S. National Library of Medicine)
Abstract
Dozens of chemicals, both natural and manmade, are often found in drinking water. Some, such as the natural contaminants uranium and arsenic, are well-known toxicants with a large toxicology database. Other chemicals, such as methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) from leaking fuel tanks, we learn about as we go along. For still others, such as the alkyl benzenes, there are very little available data, and few prospects of obtaining more. In some cases, chemicals are purposely added to drinking water for beneficial purposes (e.g., chlorine, fluoride, alum), which may cause a countervailing hazard. Removing all potentially toxic chemicals from the water is virtually impossible and is precluded for beneficial uses and for economic reasons. Determination of safe levels of chemicals in drinking water merges the available toxicity data with exposure and human effect assumptions into detailed hazard assessments. This process should incorporate as much conservatism as is needed to allow for uncertainty in the toxicity and exposure estimates. Possible sensitive subpopulations such as unborn children, infants, the elderly, and those with common diseases such as impaired kidney function must also be considered. However, the range of sensitivity and the variability of toxicity and exposure parameters can never be fully documented. In addition, the validity of the low-dose extrapolations, and whether the toxic effect found in animals occurs at all in humans, is never clear. This publication discusses how these competing needs and uncertainties intersect in the development of Public Health Goals for uranium, fluoride, arsenic, perchlorate, and other highly debated chemicals.